WMNF News surveyed 1,963 likely Florida November 2024 general election voters from March 11-13, 2024. Among the things we found is that former President Donald Trump leads incumbent President Joe Biden in Florida, but by a smaller margin than some other polls.
We also learned that Trump leads Biden among all age categories. Even young voters in Florida who say they will vote in November responded that they prefer Trump (50.8.% of 18- to 29-year-olds) over Biden (32.6%).
Results of this WMNF News poll:
Trump leads Biden in Florida
We asked Florida voters “If the General Election for President of the United States were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?” More Florida voters said they planned to vote for Trump (47.5%) than for Biden (41.6%), which is outside this poll’s margin of error (2.2%). 5.7% of Floridians said they planned to vote for someone else, while 5.2% are undecided.
Trump leads in all age categories
Trump is the favorite of a plurality of voters in all four age categories (18 to 29, 30 to 49, 50 to 69 and 70 and up). Even young voters in Florida who say they will vote in November responded that they prefer Trump (50.8.% of 18- to 29-year-olds) over Biden (32.6%) or someone else (7.6%). 9.1% of that age group is undecided, that’s the most in the four age categories.
Women still leaning towards Trump, unaffected by recent E. Jean Carroll case
Florida women slightly favor Trump (46.4%) over Biden (42.9%). That’s despite the 2023 jury decision that Trump was financially liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s. 5.0% of the women we polled are undecided.
Breakdown by political party registration
As expected, most Florida Democrats support Biden (76.5%) and most Republicans favor Trump (80.3%). Floridians who are registered to other political parties or people who have No Party Affiliation support the two main candidates fairly evenly. Among these “Independent” voters, 41.3% support Trump and 40.9% are for Biden (that’s within the poll’s margin of error). 10.1% support another candidate and 7.7% of Floridians who are not registered Republicans or Democrats are undecided on who they will support for president in November.
14.0% of registered Democrats in Florida say they will vote for Trump. 12.6% of Republicans say they will vote for Biden.
More Democrats (5.9%) in Florida responded that they were still undecided about who to vote for in November than Republicans (2.7%). But more Republicans (4.5%) than Democrats (3.6) said they were likely to vote for someone other than Trump or Biden (4.5%).
Trump has a large lead among Hispanic/LatinX voters in Florida
More Florida voters who identify as Hispanic say they will vote for Trump in November (52.7%) than Biden (35.8%). 6.1% say they will vote for someone else and 5.4% are undecided.
Biden leads Trump in the Miami media market
In the Miami media market (Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties), 51.2% of respondents said they will vote for Biden in November compared with 36.0% for Trump.
Florida voters are split on their approval of the job done by Ron DeSantis
We asked voters “Do you approve of the job Ron DeSantis is doing as Governor of Florida?” 47.4% said yes, 45.2% said no and 7.4% were unsure. 78.2% of Republicans said yes and 76.8% of Democrats said no. Among voters with No Party Affiliation and those registered with other parties, 41.3% approve of the job DeSantis is doing, 49.0% disapprove and 9.7% are unsure.
DeSantis’ approval rate with Hispanic/LatinX voters in Florida
More Florida voters who identify as Hispanic say they approve of the job that Ron DeSantis is doing as governor (48.3%) than disapprove (42.9%). 8.8% responded that they are unsure.
More results to come
The results of the WMNF News poll offer a glimpse into the mindset of Florida voters, providing valuable data for analysis and discussion. Stay tuned for in-depth coverage and analysis as more findings about the economic concerns of Floridians will be released in the coming days at wmnf.org.
The methods of this WMNF News poll:
WMNF News commissioned St. Pete Polls to survey Floridians. Pollsters used the registered voter lists supplied by the State of Florida as of February 6, 2024. Only voters who said they were planning to vote in the November general election were included. We surveyed 1,963 likely Florida general election voters from March 11-13, 2024. The sample of voters that were contacted included random samples of registered voters in Florida. The results have a 2.2% margin of error at a 95% confidence level
The poll was a combination of an automated phone call polling system and a manual P2P SMS polling system. The results were then weighted to account for proportional differences between the respondents’ demographics and the demographics of the active voter population for the state of Florida. The weighting demographics used were: political party, race, age, gender and media market. 80% of respondents were via phone call and 20% were via SMS texting.
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