Susan MacManus, USF Emeritus Distinguished Professor of Political Science and political analyst for ABC Action News in Tampa, appeared on WMNF WaveMakers with Janet & Tom on Tuesday (7/23) to discuss the unprecedented dynamics of the presidential campaign.
A disastrous debate performance by President Joe Biden less than a month ago prompted calls for him to leave the race. An attempted assassination of Donald Trump by a 20-year-old registered Republican led to the resignation Monday of the Secret Service director. A Republican Party unified around Donald Trump’s candidacy against Biden, only to have Biden stun the nation by dropping out of the race and immediately endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris quickly secured support from two-thirds of Democratic delegates.
Expect more surprises before the November election, MacManus said. “It’s so risky for people to say definitively what is going to happen in November,” MacManus said. “With the snap of a finger we can see another 180 degree change. We have such a fast news cycle and so many things can happen.”
Harris fares slightly better against Trump than Biden, MacManus said, but Trump still holds a slight lead in polls, particularly in swing states. Democrats will have to fight hard to win swing states in the midwest, so Harris’ running mate will be crucial, she said.
MacManus attended the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee for ABC Action News and plans to attend the Democratic convention where Harris is expected to secure the nomination. Days before Biden dropped out, MacManus said she thought he could not continue.
So she was not surprised when Biden dropped out Sunday. “The pressure was mounting by the second practically. He really didn’t have an option.”
Now Harris will have the advantage over Trump on age, since he’s now the oldest candidate ever to run for president. Polls showed voters weren’t happy with Trump or Biden, so Harris has an opportunity to win over voters looking for an alternative, MacManus said. But polls also show a majority of voters don’t like the direction of the country, she pointed out, and Harris will not be able to distance herself from unpopular Biden decisions.
It’s too early for polls to reflect the new reality of Harris as the Democratic nominee, MacManus said. It will take a couple of weeks before anyone can realistically judge the impact of switching from Biden to Harris, she said.
But Harris is a much better campaigner today than she was four years ago, MacManus said. She’s calmer, more confident, smiles more. “Her campaign confidence has gone stratospheric,” MacManus said.
Hear the entire conversation by clicking the link below, going to the WaveMakers archives or by searching for WMNF WaveMakers wherever you listen to podcasts.
