Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Irene Sans, Leslie Hudson
NEW AS OF 11 p.m.: Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches should be issued for portions of Florida Monday morning. A state of emergency has been declared for 51 out of Florida’s 67 counties. Crews are working around the clock to remove debris from the Tampa/St. Pete barrier islands.
The National Hurricane Center expects Milton to continue to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane and impact hurricane-weary Florida on Wednesday. Milton’s central barometric pressure has steadily fallen today, and that correlates to a strengthening storm.
Some parts of the Tampa Bay area are projected to get more than nine feet of storm surge from Hurricane Milton. Several counties have issued evacuation orders.
Manatee County
Manatee County has issued evacuation orders for everyone in evacuation Levels A and B—and for all residents or visitors in RVs or Mobile Homes beginning at 2:00 p.m. Monday.
Pinellas County
Pinellas County has issued a mandatory evacuation for all Residential Healthcare Facilities within Evacuation Zones A, B, and C. Zone D is under voluntary evacuation. Check your evacuation zone at kyz.Pinellas.gov.
Pasco County
Pasco County has issued mandatory evacuation orders beginning at 10:00 a.m. Monday for Evacuation Zones A and B plus everyone living in a manufactured home, mobile home or RV anywhere in Pasco County plus everyone in low-lying areas or areas prone to flooding. Voluntary evacuations are in place for anyone registered with Pasco County as a Special Needs Resident and anyone who would be vulnerable in the event of a power loss.
Milton is expected to make landfall sometime on Wednesday and then cross the State bringing widespread impacts to the west coast of Florida first, and then to parts of eastern Florida.
Milton is expected to have winds near 130 mph as it approaches the central Gulf coast of Florida. There is still large uncertainty of Milton’s intensity as it approaches Florida. Some models indicate Milton could interact with significant wind shear which could limit its strength, somewhat. While some weakening is anticipated, Milton is expected to transition into a larger (in size) hurricane at landfall, with impacts spreading over most of Florida as it bisects the State.
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:
1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.
2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
No evacuations have been ordered yet. Still, State officials say those could come as early as Monday if necessary. Florida residents should have their hurricane plan and follow subsequent forecasts and official notices or evacuations. Weather conditions will start to deteriorate for parts of western Florida on Monday, with the worst weather building on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As always, only get your weather information from trusted sources. Be prepared to act quickly if you are in an evacuation zone and are told to leave.
