Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Leslie Hudson
NEW AS OF 11 a.m.: Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida later today. A state of emergency has also been declared for 54 out of Florida’s 67 counties.
Milton formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The National Hurricane Center expects the storm to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane and impact hurricane-weary Florida next week. Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening today.
Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday and then cross the State bringing widespread impacts to the west coast of Florida first, and then to parts of eastern Florida.
Milton is expected to have winds near 120 mph as it approaches the central Gulf coast of Florida – near the Tampa/St. Pete area. There is still large uncertainty about Milton’s intensity as it approaches Florida. Some models indicate Milton could interact with notable wind shear which could limit its strength, somewhat.
While some weakening is anticipated, the shear could help transition Milton into a large (in size) hurricane at landfall, with impacts spread out over a larger area.
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of Florida mid week. It’s important not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.
2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of Florida beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later today or tonight. Residents in Florida should follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river flooding.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
The preliminary rainfall forecast through Saturday October 12 is between 4 and 10 inches along the west to southwest coast of Florida and then 4 to 8 inches is possible along the east coast. The forecast for exact totals will likely change over the next few days, but the overall theme will remain consistent: Heavy rainfall for parts of the peninsula will pose a mounting threat for flash flooding next week.
No evacuations have been ordered yet, but State officials say those could come as early as late Sunday or Monday if it becomes necessary. Florida residents should have their hurricane plan in place, and follow subsequent forecasts and official notices or evacuations.
This is an evolving weather situation. Make sure to keep up with the forecast over the weekend and make sure your family’s hurricane plan is up to date.
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