Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Leslie Hudson
Tropical Depression 14 was named by the National Hurricane Center this morning. About 2 hours later the NHC upgraded it to Tropical Storm Milton. As of the 5 p.m. update, the NHC believes Milton could be as powerful as a Category 3 hurricane before it impacts Florida next week.
Milton is expected to linger over the western Gulf of Mexico through the weekend, before it begins to accelerate eastward by the early workweek. By the early to middle part of the upcoming week, forecasters at the NHC anticipate that Milton will strengthen into potentially a category three hurricane.
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:
1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding.
Regardless of the amount of strengthening that Milton undergoes, heavy rain is expected over the southern half of the Florida peninsula this week. The preliminary rainfall forecast through Saturday, Oct. 12, is between four and eight inches for locations along and south of I-4 and for the immediate Atlantic Coast.
The forecast for exact totals will likely change over the next few days, but the overall theme will remain consistent: Heavy rainfall for parts of the peninsula will pose a mounting threat for flash flooding next week.
This is an evolving weather situation. It’s important to keep up with the forecast over the weekend. And check to make sure your family’s hurricane plan is up to date.
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