The National Hurricane Center has announced that Hurricane Hunters found hurricane-force winds in Helene, therefore the storm is now officially a hurricane. The next 24 hours will be for Helene to intensify, likely reaching category 3 status, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph before making landfall around Carrabelle, Florida on Thursday evening.
Helene is traveling over very warm waters and there is not much wind shear to prevent it from intensifying. There is a hurricane warning in effect from Anclote River to Mexico Beach and a tropical storm warning from the Tampa Bay area southward to Charlotte Harbor. A hurricane watch from Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Once the system makes landfall it will slowly downgrade categories, but it will also slow down, therefore expect rain to become a big concern, especially over areas across
the Southeast, where they have been dealing with drought, therefore flooding will become more likely.
Impacts
Hurricane Helene will bring heavy rain, especially along the West Coast of Florida, the Panhandle, and North Florida. Storm surge and its huge wind field will bring life-threatening conditions and widespread power outages.
Storm surges could be as high as 15 feet along the Florida Big Bend and through the upper area of Tampa Bay. Across the Tampa Bay area storm surge could be as high as 8 feet and Southwest Florida could experience storm search as high as 5 feet in some spots.
The wind field is e expanding as it travels over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles from the center to the east, according to the 11 a.m. National Hurricane Center’s bulletin.
Keep in mind that Florida will continue to be east of the center therefore tropical storm-force winds are likely across much of the state. The highest probability of tropical-storm-force winds is across the West Coast of Florida through the Panhandle. South Florida will have breezy conditions and gutsy winds at times, especially when the rainbands move in as they have Wednesday morning. For South Florida, the heaviest rain and gustier winds will be between Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Rainbands will travel across the entire Peninsula. The most active day will be on Thursday as heavy rainfall and thunderstorms embedded in these rainbands could also produce a few tornadoes. For South Florida, accumulations may vary between 2 to 4 inches, but some areas could have more, depending on the rainbands and their intensity. West and Southwest Florida have received plenty of rainfall in August and September, so flooding is more likely to happen due to the ground being well-saturated. Flash floods are likely across the panhandle along I-10 from Tallahassee to Jacksonville and along I-75 from north Florida to Central Florida, including Tampa. up to 12 inches of rain are possible across the Panhandle, especially from Apalachicola to Tallahassee.
Please finish preparations by Wednesday afternoon if you’re across South Florida and by Wednesday evening for anyone located from Central Florida northward. Weather conditions will quickly deteriorate throughout the day on Wednesday and become the worst on Thursday.
We will continue to monitor and bring you updates throughout the day and more frequently as the storm approaches.
