Florida Public Radio Emergency Network (FPREN) Storm Center | By Irene Sans
(For a Spanish language version of this update, click here)
As of the 5:00 a.m. Tuesday, September 24 update from the National Weather Service, most of the coast of the Tampa Bay area is under a Hurricane Watch.
The National Hurricane Center has kept the label of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine on the system located over the western Caribbean. In the advisory at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday, the disturbance continued to strengthen and is expected to strengthen further and significantly during the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm is located about 100 miles southwest of Grand Cayman. It has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and it’s moving west-northwest at about 7 mph.
We expect a similar movement during the next 24 hours, but the system will be gaining strength. It is likely to be named tropical storm Helene by Tuesday morning as it moves to the north-northwest. Once the system enters the Gulf of Mexico it will be traveling over very warm waters and there won’t be much to stop it. The National Hurricane Center warns that this system could rapidly intensify and reach category three hurricane as it moves over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A tropical watch is in effect for Dry Tortugas and the Lower Keys south of the 7 Mile Bridge. Watches will continue to be issued overnight and into Tuesday, especially across the West Coast of Florida. Expect the watches across the Florida Keys to turn into warnings on Tuesday as the system is set to enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday afternoon.
Once over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the system will not only be intensifying, but it will also gain forward speed. A faster northward to north-northeast direction is expected on Wednesday and Thursday.
Impacts
Any shift to the track, either west or east would change the impacts for the state. A shift west would bring lesser impacts, and a shift to the east would bring more impact to Florida. Keep this in mind as we discuss the possible impacts on Florida. As of Monday 5 p.m., this system is still in its infancy stage and we do expect changes so please take the following impacts with a grain of salt.
The largest storm surge is expected from Southwest Florida through the Western coast of the state, including the Tampa Bay area. Under the current track, there could be areas that experience greater than 9 feet of storm surge, especially across Matagorda Bay, the Tampa Bay Area, and the Big Bend. For Southwest Florida up to 3 feet of storm surge is possible under the current track.
It is still early to pinpoint the exact rainfall for this system. Currently, the greatest rainfall would fall between the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend area. But this also includes North Florida, where there could be up to 8 inches of rain. Keep in mind the system will be moving much faster than other recent tropical systems. Therefore, rainfall is not expected to be as heavy, but still, keep in mind that the ground has been very saturated across the Panhandle of Florida in recent weeks and flooding will rapidly occur. The West Coast of Florida will also be dealing with the risk of flash floods as the heaviest bands will move through the area from Tuesday evening through Friday morning.
Expect tropical storm force winds to begin across the Keys as early as Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, all of South Florida including Southwest Florida could be experiencing storm-force winds, and winds will propagate through the state, northward, and intensify overnight into Thursday.
The strongest winds will be near the eye wall and to the right of the storm. The wind field will be large, therefore, much of Central Florida through North Florida could feel at least tropical storm-force winds and some spots will deal with hurricane force winds as the storm approaches the coast on Thursday afternoon. Please make sure to finish your preparations by Wednesday afternoon if you are north of Lake Okeechobee, if you are south, finish them by Wednesday morning.
We will continue to bring you updates as the system becomes better defined and gets moving.
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